Romanians vote for a new Parliament on Sunday, December 11, and the latest polls show that the Social Democratic Party (PSD), led by former deputy Prime Minister Liviu Dragnea, is likely to win by a wide margin.

According to an IRES survey ordered by local TV station Digi24, some 44% of the respondents who intend to go to the polls on Sunday plan to vote for PSD. Moreover, the survey results also show that PSD is likely to form the parliamentary majority that would allow it to name the future Prime Minister, as the Liberal Democratic Alliance (ALDE), led by former PM Calin Popescu Tariceanu, has 6% of the vote intentions.

The National Liberal Party (PNL) is second in the IRES survey, with only 23% of the vote intentions. The Save Romania Union (USR) is third, with 7%. PNL and USR both announced that they would support current Prime Minister Dacian Ciolos for a new mandate.

Former President Traian Basescu’s Popular Movement Party (PMP) has some 6% of the vote intentions. Basescu said that he wouldn’t make an alliance with PSD after the elections but that he didn’t exclude cooperating with PNL.

The Magyar Democratic Union in Romania (UDMR), which mainly represents the Hungarian minority in Transylvania, holds some 5% of the vote intentions.

The nationalistic United Romania Party (PRU), backed by former PSD deputy Sebastian Ghita, the richest MP in Romania, has 4% of the vote intentions, just under the 5% threshold for reaching the Parliament.

IRES interviewed 1,100 people by telephone in this survey on December 6-7 and says the maximum margin for error is +/-2.9%.

Only 42% of those questioned said they will surely go to the polls on Sunday and 28% said they will probably go to vote. Meanwhile, 24% are decided not to vote in the elections and 6% say they probably won’t vote.

Another poll carried out by SOCIOPOL for local Romania TV news station also shows PSD in front, with 41% of the vote intentions, followed by PNL with 27%, and USR with 7%. PSD’s ally ALDE has 6% of the vote intentions and the nationalistic PRU has 5% while UDMR and PMP have under 5% of the vote intentions. Romania TV is a news station controlled by Sebastian Ghita, one of PRU’s leaders.

The fact that PSD leads the polls and is favorite to make the new Government together with ALDE has been reflected by all the polls made in recent months.

Survey: Social Democratic Party would take 40% in Romania's parliamentary elections

Survey ordered by the liberals shows the social democrats in the lead for parliamentary elections

The survey results may be overturned on elections day in case of a high turnout rate.

If more than 50% of the Romanians who have the right to vote go to the polls on Sunday, PSD is no longer sure of its victory, as the party has a stable electoral pool while new voters are more likely to favor PSD's opponents, according to local sociologists.

However, such a scenario is unlikely given the dull campaign for the elections, which lacked action and debate on Romania's most important problems. Romanians haven't been anxious to vote in the previous parliamentary elections. In 2012, the turnout was 42%, and in 2008 - 39%, way lower than in 2004, when over 58% of the Romanians went to vote in the elections. However, in 2008, the parliamentary elections were held at the same time with the presidential elections.

Romanians are generally more interested in the presidential elections although the President's attributions are rather limited. In November 2014, when Klaus Iohannis surprisingly beat PSD's Victor Ponta in the presidential elections, the turnout was 64%.

editor@romania-insider.com