Romania’s foreign trade deficit moderated in November, but even so, it rose by 21% YoY to EUR 2.59 bln, enough to bring the trade gap in the 12-month period to EUR 33.3 bln or 12.1% of the country’s GDP. The ratio was 9.9% as of November 2021 and 7.9% in November 2019.

The country’s external deficit moderated in relative terms in November, but this is not likely to reflect a sustainable trend.

Exports increased by 19% y/y above EUR 8.4 bln remaining close to the record marked in September, while the imports advanced by a marginally higher rate, still remaining above EUR 11.0 bln. The moderation in the commodity prices is still likely to tone down further the imports, where chemical goods hold a significant share.

On the upside, the automobile industry is helping exports and new models launched by Dacia and Ford will sustain the trend.

However, the export-to-import ratio, 80% in 2019 and 73% as of November 2022 (calculated on a 12-month basis), is not expected to improve – on the opposite, the state forecasting body CNP sees it as further sliding down to 70% in 2026.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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