A new study by local bank BCR warns of an impending aging population related difficulties. Unless birth rates increase significantly, by 2030, 1 in 5 Romanians will be aged 65 plus, compared to 1 in 7 at present. By 2060, the rate will have reached 1 in 3 Romanians aged over 65, according to BCR.

“An ever decreasing and aging population will cause three major economic impacts in Romania - economic downturn, continued dependence on foreign capital and increased pressure on the state budget over the long term,” said BCR chief analyst Eugen Sinca.

The picture in rural Romania is even more dramatic. A third of those currently working in agriculture are over 55, according to BCR. The study also warns of a spike in retirements around the year 2035, due to unusually high birth rates in Romania between 1967 and 1970. The BCR analyst said that the country must prepare for the increase in retirement rate, which “requires rapid reform of the health system by involving private sector health providers and maintaining key reforms already implemented in the pension system.”

Sinca added that being prepared for retirement is vital and urged Romanians to save money and make financial plans for their old age, or risk facing marked drops in standard of living. The study also gave a revealing statistic on the conditions for pensions at the moment: only 9 percent of Romanian pensioners can afford to go on a one week holiday each year, compared to 76 percent of German pensioners.

Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR), a member of Erste Group, is the largest bank in Romania assets-wise, over EUR 16 billion. BCR has 41 business centers for companies and 622 retail units located in cities across the country with over 10,000 inhabitants. The bank runs the largest national ATM network - over 2,400 - and provides internet banking, phone banking and e-commerce services.

Erste Group employs more than 50,000 people and has 17 million clients across the region. The Group operates over 3,000 branches in eight countries – Austria, Romania, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Croatia, Serbia and the Ukraine. On 31 December 2012 Erste Group had total assets worth EUR 213.8 billion, registering a net profit of EUR 483.5 million and a cost / income ratio of 52.0 percent.

Liam Lever, liam@romania-insider.com