Following the response in the UK to the ending of transitional controls on Romania and Bulgaria and the access to normal EU rights for citizens of the two countries, the UK's PM David Cameron (in picture) has been talking tough on immigration. He is expected to announce new measures today limiting EU citizens' access to welfare, healthcare and housing.

“There’s been a lot said about Bulgarians and Romanians coming over next year,” wrote PM Cameron in British newspaper The Sun. “From now on, if they don’t have a job after six months their benefits will end unless they have a genuine chance of finding work,” Cameron continued. On housing, the PM said that immigrants should not qualify for council housing until they have lived in the UK for two years and “can show they’re giving something back.” He also promised changes to healthcare provision, saying that the UK will pursue reimbursement from the home countries of people who do not pay British taxes but use the UK's health services.

There has been speculation in the UK press on whether Prime Minister's proposals will on the one hand be tough enough to satisfy elements of his own Conservative Party, or on the other, if they will draw reprimands from the European Commission for breaching rights of EU citizens.

The rhetoric from UK politicians has been increasingly tough on immigration as the right-wing press and anti-EU party UKIP have maintained an at times lurid narrative on possible immigration from Romania and Bulgaria after transitional controls expire in 2014. Expressions such as “waves” and “hordes” of Romanians and Bulgarians “flooding” into the UK have been regularly employed.

As well as regularly quoting the entire population of the two countries, figures from Migration Watch, an organization that campaigns for tougher control of immigration, are used. Migration Watch estimates 50,000 immigrants a year from Romania and Bulgaria, based on levels of immigration from Poland. However, the Migration Watch estimations appear to overlook a number of factors, chiefly the high levels emigration that have already occurred from the two countries, as other EU states ended transitional controls early. In contrast, after Poland joined the EU in 2004, the UK was one of the few countries to lift controls and with the booming economy at the time, the UK proved a popular destination for Polish emigrants post-EU accession.

UK politicians have been reluctant to give an official estimate for immigration from Romania and Bulgaria, but some commentators give figures below 10,000 a year. The mood reflected by the anti-EU, right wing UK press continues to mystify  ordinary Romanians, who commonly say that they would reluctantly consider leaving Romania for work. Romanians quoted in the local and the British media suggest the so called “benefits tourism” does not appear to be on the Romanian radar.

Liam Lever, liam@romania-insider.com