Banca Transilvania, the largest in Romania, estimates that in 2022 the country’s economy will grow by 5.2%, compared to the Government’s 4.6% forecast assumed for budget planning purposes.

On the other hand, the bank’s experts, quoted by Ziarul Financiar, estimate last year’s economic expansion at only 6.2% - compared to the 7% official expectations.

In nominal terms, Romania’s GDP will reach EUR 266 bln this year, up from EUR 241 bln 2021, according to Banca Transilvania. In 2023, the GDP is expected to reach EUR 290 bln.

The bank’s scenario is based on favourable prospects for productive investments, supported by the low level of real financing costs and the implementation of programs launched in the European Union after the pandemic (the Resilience Facility).

Regarding private consumption, the main element of GDP by utilisation, Banca Transilvania expects an increase of 5.5% YoY next year compared to 6.9% this year.

Investments will increase faster, by 10% YoY. At the same time, the average inflation will be 5.1%, compared to 4.1% this year, and Banca Transilvania expected the National Bank of Romania (BNR) to increase the refinancing interest rate to 2.5% compared to 1.75% at this moment.

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andrei@romania-insider.com