Romanian financial analysts, members of the CFA Romania association, expect the country's GDP to decline by 5.2% this year.

They also estimate a 7.8%-of-GDP budget deficit at the end of the year, according to an ad-hoc set of questions added in April to the monthly poll conducted by the association, local Agerpres reported.

The average expectation for the unemployment rate at the end of the year is 8.2%, according to the same survey.

Analysts expect the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis to last until the first quarter of 2021. Over 90% of the respondents also anticipate a depreciation of the local currency (RON) in the next 12 months (compared to the current value). However, the average magnitude of the anticipated weakening is rather moderate: to RON 4.92 to EUR within six months and to RON 4.97 to EUR over the next twelve months.

The expected inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (May 2021 / May 2020) is 3.37%, reflecting the average estimates of the surveyed analysts.

The CFA Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator increased by 11.6 points in April compared to the previous month to 32.4 points. Compared to the same month of 2019, it decreased by 14.2 points, dragged down by the anticipation component.

editor@romania-insider.com

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