The macroeconomic confidence indicator calculated by the CFA Romania Association kept declining in March to reach the value of 40.9 points from 45.2 points in February and 56.6 points in January.

However, the CFA analysts retain certain optimism compared to the consensus expectations when it comes to growth, inflation and public finance. This may reflect the lagged release of the results of the survey (carried out at the end of March).

Thus, the CFA Romania analysts estimate economic growth of 3% this year, down half a percentage point from February, and an average inflation rate of 8.03% (7.26% in February), Ziarul Financiar reported. For comparison, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently projected 2.2% growth and 9.3% inflation this 2022.

The CFA analysts also expect the public deficit at 6.7% of GDP this year - a significant revision from the 6.2% forecast in February, which better reflects the effects of subdued economic activity amid adverse external conditions.

Regarding the evolution of the monetary policy interest rates, the survey participants anticipate that the National Bank of Romania (BNR) will increase it to at least 4.25% over the next 12 months. It is, again, a moderate view as actual expectations go up to 5%.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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