The macroeconomic confidence index compiled by the Romanian CFA Society based on a poll among its members increased in June compared to May with both current and expectations elements marking higher values, to 76.2 points on a 0-100 scale with 50 points standing for a balanced assessment.

The index, presented by Economica.net, is less than one point below the all-time record, and it increased by 42.1 points compared to one year earlier - which comes not as a surprise given the situation in July 2021.

The better headline score is underpinned by moderately optimistic expectations when it comes to specific areas.

Thus, on average, the CFA analysts see the public debt to GDP ratio at 52% within 12 months - from 49.7% at the end of May (latest data available) and probably over 50% at the end of June, accounting for the EUR 3.5 bln Eurobonds issued this month.

As regards the local currency, the poll points to average expectations for slower depreciation - 1.91% versus the euro within 12 months, to an exchange rate of 5.026 RON to EUR.

The inflation rate over the next 12 months is seen at 4.11% - which compares directly with the 1.95% nominal appreciation of the euro versus the local currency and results in a real appreciation of the RON by over 2% for the coming 12-month period.

As regards the real estate market, the CFA Society changed its focus. After it was assessing analysts’ sentiment in regard to the sustainability of the prices (and the analysts said they believe the prices are too high for being sustainable) during the first months of the year, the CFA poll is now focusing on analysts’ expectations.

While some 60% of them expressed expectations for rising prices - this gives no information in regard to the sustainability of the prices. 

(Photo: Oleg Kachura/ Dreamstime)

iulian@romania-insider.com