The macroeconomic confidence index compiled by the CFA Society based on a poll among its members increased in February for the fourth month in a row to 53.2 points – the highest value since the war in Ukraine began one year earlier.

The index, which ranges between 0 (highest pessimism) and 100 ( highest optimism), soared by 9.9 points from January and crossed the 50-point benchmark for the first time in the past year, moving in the positive expectations region, Agerpres reported.

Current conditions have improved by 9.1 points to some 70 points, while the expectations improved faster (by 10.1 points) and shifted in the positive expectations area for the first time since last February. 

In more concrete terms, analysts expect Romania’s economy to rise by 2.4% this year (1.9% in January). The projected 12-month inflation was revised downward to 8.6% from 9.2%.

In the public finance area, this year’s budget deficit is seen at 5.3% of GDP (5.1% in January).

The public debt to GDP ratio is seen at 57% (most likely under national definition), not changed from January and close to 57.2% at the end of 2022 (under EU definition, the ratio was, however, 47.2% at the end of 2022).

iulian@romania-insider.com

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