Romania’s National Strategy and Prognosis Commission (CNSP) expects the local economy to record a 4.9% increase in 2021 after an estimated decline of 3.8% this year, according to its latest forecast.

The recovery will be driven by consumption, which should record an increase of 5.1% next year, after a contraction of 0.8% this year, Economica.net reported.

The investments in the local economy (gross fixed capital formation) should also go up by 7.4% in 2021, after a 3.5% decline this year.

The exports and imports should also recover next year, by 10.4% and 12.3%, according to the CNSP forecast. This year, exports are expected to fall by 10.5% and imports – by 7.2%. The trade deficit will thus increase from EUR 17.3 bln in 2019 to EUR 18.3 in 2020, and EUR 21.8 bln in 2021.

The annual inflation rate is estimated at 2.8% for the end of this year and 2.5% at the end of 2021. The average exchange rate is projected to increase from RON 4.84 per EUR this year to RON 4.9 per EUR in 2021.

The average number of employees in the local economy will decline by 1.6%, to 5.07 million this year, and grow by 1.8%, to 5.16 million next year. The average net monthly wage should also increase by some 6.8% next year, to RON 3,373 (EUR 688).

editor@romania-insider.com

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