The modern retail stock in Romania and Bulgaria can still grow by 20% to 30% by 2022, despite the rapid increase in ecommerce, a report by real estate consultancy firm Colliers International.

The firm has analyzed the impact of ecommerce on traditional retail and concluded that online and conventional channel retail will continue co-existing side by side in the short to medium term in the CEE-6 markets (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria).

Retail sales in the six countries are expected to record a 4.9% annual growth rate by 2022, resulting in a total increase of EUR 71.5 billion. In the same period, a conservative growth scenario sees ecommerce in CEE-6 expanding 8.8% per annum from a baseline of EUR 13.1 billion, to EUR 20 billion.

“We acknowledge that bullish estimates may put the size of the online market closer to that mark even today. But even in a more “bullish” scenario of ecommerce capturing 10% of all retail sales by 2022E, expanding to EUR 34 bln, we foresee a decent majority of incremental sales still occurring through the traditional, established channels”, said Mark Robinson, CEE Research Specialist.

Thus, there is still room for the modern retail stock to expand by 5-10% in the Visegrad-4 countries and by 20-30% in Romania and Bulgaria, where the regional cities are less developed. At the same time, the growth in both ecommerce and traditional retail will generate new demand for logistics spaces in the six countries, exceeding one million sqm per year, Colliers estimates.

Modern retail inventory in Romania reaches over 3.5 mln sqm

editor@romania-insider.com