Romania’s largest bank BCR increased its economic growth estimate for 2015 from 2.2% to 2.8%, relying on higher domestic consumption. The estimates for the other GDP components remained unchanged.

“The low inflation, the modest improvement in the private labor segment and the Government’s predilection for social and personnel expenses are the main elements that support our scenario for a stronger private consumption in 2015. The household consumption could increase by 3.2%, in real terms, in 2015, over the 2.3% level we previously forecasted,” according to a note published by BCR’s senior analyst Eugen Sinca.

The retail sales have increased more than 6% in the last three months (year-on-year) and the perspectives for consumer lending are better. Other factors that support domestic consumption are the low inflation rate, the increase of the average wage and the lower unemployment rate. The consumer confidence index also improved, according to BCR.

Romania records fourth largest retail sales increase in EU

EC sees 2.7% economic growth for Romania this year, sixth highest in the EU

Prognosis Commission: Romania’s GDP will grow by 2.8%

Coface: Romania’s GDP to rise 2.7%

EBRD: Romania’s economic growth stays at 2.8%

Andrei Chirileasa, andrei@romania-insider.com