Poland, Bulgaria and Romania have the highest decarbonisation transition risks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), an analysis conducted by the international rating agency Fitch shows.

CEE national energy and climate plans estimate their investment needs averaging 3.9% of GDP annually until 2030, but as high as 7% in Bulgaria and Romania. This will add to pressures on the public finances, although the majority is expected to be met by the private sector, as well as by the EU.

Romania apparently ticks all the risk factors outlined by Fitch: high green investment needs (reflecting exposure to fossil fuels and weak starting position); limited fiscal space; and weak ability and capacity to implement transition plans.

The rating impact of decarbonisation in CEE still appears manageable, particularly if transition plans are well designed, according to Fitch – although some downward pressure on ratings could materialise for sovereigns with the greatest vulnerability to decarbonisation transition risks.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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