The foreign banks polled by Bloomberg expressed expectations for an exchange rate of some RON 4.9 to EUR at the end of the year, not much different from the latest forecast of the Romanian CFA Society.

The foreign banks, including JPMorgan, Mitsubishi Financial, Erste, Commerzbank, and BNP Paribas, expect, on average, an exchange rate of RON 4.88 to EUR in the fourth quarter of the year (Q4).

The exchange rate will rise above RON 4.9 only in Q1 next year, according to their projections, quoted by Profit.ro.

Among the banks polled by Bloomberg there is, however, a German state bank, Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, with the highest estimates for the Romanian currency’s depreciation.

Thus, the German bank anticipates an exchange rate of RON 5.2 to EUR in Q4, RON 5.25 in Q1, and RON 5.3 in Q2.

BNP Paribas also sees the Romanian currency slipping above RON 5 to EUR.

The Romanian CFA analysts indicated in July average expectations for an exchange rate of RON 4.90 to EUR within 6 months and RON 4.96 to EUR within 12 months. They also expressed average expectations for 2.7% CPI inflation over the coming 12-month forecast period.

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andrei@romania-insider.com