The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth figures for the third quarter of 2014, which is to be released by on Friday, November 13, could be the “silver bullet” that could decide the winner of this year’s presidential elections.

Prime Minister Victor Ponta, who’s running against Sibiu’s mayor Klaus Iohannis for the presidential seat, has brought the GDP growth figures under the spotlight.

When confronted by Iohannis in their first TV debate, on Tuesday, about Romania’s falling into technical recession in the second quarter, Ponta said that the figures for the third quarter will show economic recovery. He then asked Iohannis if he would withdraw from the presidential race if the figures released by the INS on Friday will show economic growth.

Then, on their second debate, on Wednesday, Ponta increased the stake and said he’s willing to bet his reputation that the figures which INS will announce on Friday will show that Romania had a 1% GDP growth in the third quarter compared to the second quarter and that figures for the first quarter have also been reviewed. “We were never in recession,” Ponta said, adding that Romania will register an economic growth between 2% and 2.5% this year.

Klaus Iohannis didn’t respond to any of Ponta’s remarks on economic growth, but some of the Romanian media speculated on the source of Ponta’s information. The law says that INS can’t give macroeconomic figures to anyone before making the official announcement.

Ponta’s remarks might be based on the European Commission’s estimates, from the beginning of November, which indicated a 1% GDP growth for Romania in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter.

If macroeconomic figures will confirm Ponta’s statements, than this will probably give him an edge over his opponent. Otherwise, this could all turn against him.

INS makes the announcement about the GDP growth in the third quarter at 10:00 AM.

editor@romania-insider.com