Romania's ruling parties, the senior Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the Liberal Party (PNL), failed to agree on the electoral calendar at their latest meeting on February 13 and deferred such a decision for three days later. Still, the major disagreements indicate a deeper deadlock that might cause bigger fractures within the unusual ruling coalition forged by president Klaus Iohannis three years ago. 

In brief, the Liberals want to organize the local elections at the same time as the European elections on June 9 – with the visible reasoning that their broad local administration apparatus would help the party remain relevant in the European Parliament.

But the Social Democrats want, in exchange, the general elections at the same time as the first round of the presidential elections and, more importantly, a joint Social Democrat presidential candidate (most probably PSD leader and prime minister Marcel Ciolacu). This would, Social Democrats expect, give a stronger chance to Ciolacu's presidential ambitions.

The Liberals, although they don't yet have a relevant presidential candidate other than the party's president, Nicolae Ciuca, would not accept the trade. But a presidential candidate, even if not likely to win, is seen as significantly helping the party in the general ballot through the message it can convey and much more interest stirred among voters by the presidential (versus general) elections.

The Liberal Party's best option is to sacrifice the European elections and insist on having its candidate in the presidential elections. This may be the sole (yet slim) chance to remain relevant in Parliament after its electorate was deeply disappointed by the ruling coalition with the Social Democrats.

The fracture within the ruling alliance shouldn't be radical, as both parties could pretend they defend political stability and keep the ruling coalition alive – while pursuing different electoral strategies.

The alternative is an electoral calendar set by Social Democrats, which may bring the Liberals so low that the incumbent ruling coalition may not form the majority in Parliament. Under these circumstances, the Liberals' bets option may actually be a win-win scenario acceptable for the Social Democrats as well.

iulian@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Inquam Photos / Octav Ganea)