The latest electoral poll in Romania, carried out by the Bureau for Social Research (BCS) for Newsweek Romania, confirmed the robust lead held by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and its leader, Marcel Ciolacu, ahead of the presidential elections (November 25, December 8) and parliamentary ballot (December 1).

Regarding the presidential elections, it remains unclear whom Marcel Ciolacu (23.4% of the voting options) will meet in the second round: Liberal (PNL) leader Nicolae Ciuca (17.1%) or nationalist leader George Simion (AUR, 16.1%). 

Reformist leader Elena Lasconi (14.7%) is another potential contender for the second ballot of the presidential elections, while former NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana (10%, independent but backed by some ad-hoc political vehicle) is losing relevance. 

The consensus expectation is that either of the two “mainstream” candidates, Ciolacu or Ciuca, who makes it to the second round with George Simion, will eventually win against the nationalist leader. A race between the two is, however, less predictable as Ciuca may gain the vote of other center-right parties. 

The poll’s outcome for the parliamentary elections allows even fewer scenarios: it’s either going to be the “grand coalition” staying in office (unless the presidential rivalry undermines their pragmatic alliance) or a political crisis. 

PSD would get 31% of the votes and the Liberals 20.5%, likely resulting in a robust majority in Parliament, possibly with the contribution of the ethnic Hungarian party UDMR (6.5%). If either of the Liberal or Social Democrat leaders pushes for another alliance, with either USR (16.5%) or AUR (17.6%) – they may potentially impose an unstable minority (or fragile majority) cabinet.

iulian@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Inquam Photos/Octav Ganea)