The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) calculated by Eurostat for Romania (105.1) reached the highest value in 12 months in April.

This means that the managers and consumers expressed, to a larger extent, more positive views or expectations compared to the long-term average.

"Based on the ESI data, we can expect a sequential [q/q] increase in the first quarter of 2024, given that the average index was above that of the previous quarter. This is also our base scenario. The positive momentum seems to continue in the second quarter, given the ESI data for the first month [of Q2]", says Vlad Ioniță, BCR analyst, quoted by Profit.

The average ESI index in the EU has remained steady over the past five months (96.2 in April) after weaker readings through most of 2023 – with the figure revealing views or expectations more pessimistic than the long-term average. ESI is not directly comparable across countries.

Romania's ESI has increased from 99.0 last May and was above the trend trajectory in April. 

The confidence indicators reached their 12-month peak in April 2024 in all the five sectors covered by ESI:  industry (with a weight of 40%), services (30%), consumers (20%), retail (5%), and construction (5%).

The confidence indicator in the industry posted a positive value (0.3) for the second time in 12 months. Despite remaining negative (-13.5), the consumer confidence indicator was also the strongest in 12 months. The confidence expressed by managers in retail (12.1) and services (8.4) was particularly robust.

The ESI is a weighted average of the balances of replies to selected questions addressed to firms in five sectors covered by the EU Business and Consumer Surveys and to consumers. The sectors covered are industry (weight 40 %), services (30 %), consumers (20 %), retail (5 %) and construction (5 %). The ESI is scaled to a long-term mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. Thus, values above 100 indicate above-average economic sentiment and vice versa.

Confidence indicators are produced as the arithmetic average of the (seasonally adjusted) balances of answers to selected questions chosen from the whole set of questions in each individual survey; balances series are the difference between positive and negative answering options, measured as percentage points of total answers.

(Photo: Diony Teixeira/ Dreamstime)

iulian@romania-insider.com