Romania's general government budget deficit reached 3.61% of GDP in January-June, according to unofficial data quoted by Profit.ro. Official data will be published after July 25.

The H1 deficit mentioned by Profit.ro implies a moderate 0.21% of GDP deficit in June (yet ten times the 0.02% deficit in June 2023) but a significant slippage for the first half of the year compared to the public gap in the same period of last year (2.34%). 

The deficit-to-GDP ratio in H1 thus rose by 1.23% compared to the same period last year, while the government still insists it can reduce the full-year figure to 5% from 5.7% in 2023. 

The new Pension Law will put more pressure on the public deficit in Q4, justifying the European Commission's concerns about the full-year gap reaching 6.9% of GDP. Independent projections, such as the one expressed by UniCredit Bank, are even more pessimistic about the fiscal slippage in Romania. 

iulian@romania-insider.com

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