Romania's industrial output in the 12 months to November 2024 contracted by 2% y/y, according to data published by the statistics office INS.  The contraction was slightly softer (-1.6% y/y) in the core manufacturing sector, with the segment of utilities (-4.4% y/y) dragging down the overall performance.

Most likely, the industrial output in Romania ended 2024 with a slightly deeper decline, after a 3% y/y contraction in 2023. The country's industry has been losing ground since before the COVID-19 crisis, from a long-term perspective.

Before each of the past two years of industrial decline, the state forecasting body CNP (incorrectly) predicted positive growth rates. The government's experts maintained their optimism. But the much-expected effects of the investments, among others under the sluggish Resilience Facility, failed to materialise in each of the two years. 

With even more fragile grounds, the CNP projected again imminent industrial recovery in 2025: +0.4% in 2025 and over 2% per annum in the coming years.

On the upside, the gross value added generated by Romaia's industry has performed comparatively better than the industrial output – which indicates (very slow) improvement in the structure of the industrial activity toward more profitable segments.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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