Romanians will vote on December 1 in the parliamentary elections, held amid unprecedented political turmoil caused by the overlapping with the presidential elections where the Constitutional Court called the recount of votes, and the Defense Council accused “cyberattack” and preferential treatment given by TikTok to the unexpectedly leading far-right candidate Calin Georgescu.

A last poll published before the December 1 ballot prompts more concerns, as it shows the nationalist Alliance for United Romanians (AUR) on top with 22% of the votes and two far-right parties, SOS Romania and POT (Party of Youth, founded by leading presidential candidate Calin Georgescu) at 4.6% each, according to Hotnews.ro.

A far-right nationalist coalition controlling around 30% of the seats in Parliament would seriously complicate the formation of a democratic majority. However, the two far-right parties need 5% of the votes to have seats allocated in Parliament.

The poll doesn’t capture the effect of the latest political developments (the recount of the votes and the allegations related to Russia’s involvement in the electoral process), which might push up the score of the far-right and nationalist parties.

The poll shows the Social Democratic Party (PSD) in second place with 21.4% of the votes, followed by the reformist Save Romania Union (USR, 17.5%) and Liberal Party (PNL, 13.4%). 

The coalition of USR and Liberals, seen as the most plausible scenario after the outcome of the presidential elections was published, is no longer the baseline scenario for several reasons. The Liberals may return to Social Democrats depending on the scores obtained on December 1, which would lead to the “grand coalition” staying in office. Even this scenario is at risk if the nationalist far-right coalition wins a blocking majority.

Designed to provide a competitive advantage to the ruling parties, the electoral calendar deepens the incipient political crisis prompted by the unexpected outcome of the first presidential round. From technical aspects to the confusion prompted among voters, the overlapping generates a series of problems. 
Members of the voting stations are supposed to recount the votes for the presidential elections and organise the parliamentary ballot at the same time.

The parties have already adjusted their messages to address the recent developments, but no clarity was possible due to the short notice. Finally, the electorate is asked to express its preferences at a time when the established institutional bodies, such as the Constitutional Court and the Defense Council, send controversial messages.

The legitimacy of the parliamentary elections’s outcome will thus be fragile, and the whole electoral process is vulnerable to contestations by parties disappointed by their scores.

iulian@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: LCVA/Dreamstime.com)