A group of influential leaders within the Social Democratic Party (PSD) in Romania, including former prime minister Victor Ponta (currently adviser to prime minister Marcel Ciolacu) and regional leaders such as Marius Budai or Paul Stanescu, are reportedly inclined rather for the pro-Russian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu or at least are ready to negotiate with the parties backing Georgescu for getting influential positions in Parliament and possibly the formation of a government.

PSD leader Marcel Ciolacu, after meeting reformist presidential candidate Elena Lasconi (USR) on December 3, voiced in favor of Romania's pro-western orientation, adding that it "must continue only by defending much more decisively the traditional values, the national identity and the faith of this nation" – echoing the message of the nationalist parties.

In the meantime, tabloid mass media, including TV stations Realitatea TV and Romania TV, has been campaigning for Calin Georgescu. While TikTok may have had a role in the initial promotion of Georgescu among the electorate, at this moment, the influential tabloid mass media is massively promoting the pro-Russian candidate while influencers are backing him on online platforms.

Amid broad public support maintained for Calin Georgescu, confirmed by an exit poll operated by CURS on December 1, this creates expectations for a defeat of the reformist candidate Elena Lasconi in the second round of the presidential elections and puts at risk the formation of a broad democratic coalition including the current ruling alliance (Social Democrats and Liberals) plus the reformist Save Romania Union (USR) and ethnic Hungarian party UDMR argued by Elena Lasconi. 

Such a scenario may ease the concerns already visible among investors. Decreasing expectations for such a scenario, seen as an acceptable solution after the parliamentary elections confirmed its feasibility, was already visible at the Bucharest Stock Exchange and on the markets for Romanian FX bonds. 

The alternative, highly likely in case Calin Georgescu wins the presidential elections, is the formation of a minority Social Democrat government that would include representatives of the parties backing Georgescu and would promote their nationalist message. Such a construction would be fragile and prone to political crises. The Romanian regulations do not allow the quick calls of snap elections, which were never organized in Romania in the past decades.

All leaders of the Social Democratic Party, known for their tight control over the local administration instrumental in the local and parliamentary elections, have issued recommendations that can be interpreted as favoring "any presidential candidate but reformist Elena Lasconi."

Former prime minister Victor Ponta (PSD) declared that he would not vote with Elena Lasconi on December 8, considering that she is not ready and able to occupy such an important position, Bursa.ro reported. Asked about Georgescu's readiness, he avoided the question and stressed that his party cannot take sides because it has to "secure a certain balance between the opposite factions in Parliament."

Ponta said that PSD would negotiate in Parliament with all political parties but did not directly disclose the target of the negotiations.

"That's what the Regulation says. And I think that Marcel Ciolacu has this mandate from all the PSD parliamentarians to negotiate with absolutely everyone and get the most important positions in the Parliament for the PSD," concluded Victor Ponta.

iulian@romania-insider.com

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