Romania's Central Bank BNR expects inflation to reach 3.5 percent, 0.5 percentage points above its previous estimation from November last year. The BNR sees the inflation at 3.2 percent for 2015.

The 2014 inflation estimation upgrade now takes into account the increase in excises and inflation.

BNR Governor Mugur Isarescu said that in his opinion inflation will be between 2 and 3 percent this year, excluding the first half of the year.

“In a couple of days we will get the report from the National Statistics Institute and everyone will see a 0.6 percent inflation. In March, it will be of 0.6 – 0.7 percent, and there will be question marks over what I am telling you now. There will be analysts talking about deflation and saying that the BNR should further cut interest rates. These are statistical effects and we should not give them greater important than they have,” Isarescu explained in a conference.

The full inflation report for February 2014 is here (in Romanian, pdf).

Romania’s annual inflation rate was 1.55 percent at the end of 2013, down from 1.88 percent the previous month. It was the lowest annual inflation in over 20 years. The central bank BNR’s target for 2013 was of 2.5 percent plus/minus one percentage point.

editor@romania-insider.com