The US dollar could reach RON 4.5 in the first half of this year, despite the fact that the Romanian economy will continue to grow above the EU average in 2016, according to an analysis made by the Romanian brokerage house Tradeville.

The dollar’s appreciation could lead to an increase in fuel prices and the cost of appliances imported from Asia.

However, the oil prices will remain “exceptionally low” in 2016, except some episodes of volatility. The oil price has recently reached one of the lowest price in over a decade, namely almost EUR 30 per barrel.

The US dollar will appreciate both against major currencies and the emerging and frontier currencies as the US economy recovers.

The dollar is not directly quoted in Romanian currency lei but based on the EUR/USD and EUR/RON exchange rates.

editor@romania-insider.com