Romania’s currency lei (RON) will continue to appreciate in the next three years if no major tensions occur, according to the analysts of the third largest local lender Banca Transilvania.

The exchange rate will reach RON 4.43/EUR this year, RON 4.34/EUR in 2017 and RON 4.31/EUR in 2018, the analysts estimate.

The annual inflation will remain in a negative territory this year, amounting to -0.9%, and will reach a positive value next year, namely 0.6%. In 2018, the inflation will amount to 1%.

The GDP will reach EUR 167.1 billion this year, and the economy will grow to EUR 177.6 billion in 2017, and to EUR 191.3 billion in 2018, according to Banca Transilvania’s estimates.

Romania’s National Bank (BNR) could start a new monetary cycle this year. As the interest rates will resume growing, the monetary policy rate could grow to 2.25% at the end of this year compared to a current rate of 1.75%. The growth cycle could continue to 3% by December 2017, and to 3.25% in 2018.

editor@romania-insider.com