Experts surveyed by Economica.net expect the National Bank of Romania (BNR) to keep the key interest rate constant at 7% at the monetary board meeting on August 7 and throughout the entire year.

The surveyed analysts generally believe BNR could operate rate cuts next year, but some of them point to the inflationary pressures that the fiscal adjustments might have.

"We maintain our view of a first rate cut in the first quarter of 2024, with a key rate of 5.5% by the end of 2024. The easing cycle will be justified by lower inflation, but probably tempered by core and regional yields, as the interest rate differential cannot be excessively narrowed," ING Bank chief economist Valentin Tataru said in his macroeconomic research report.

Adrian Codirlașu, vice-president of CFA Romania, does not rule out the possibility that the key interest rate cut will be postponed by the central bank until the middle of next year, given the possibility of the recurrence of inflationary pressures.

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iulian@romania-insider.com