Ultranationalist independent candidate Calin Georgescu would mark a clear win in the first round of the presidential elections (38%) but would not significantly improve his score in the second round against the candidate of the ruling coalition Crin Antonescu whom he might defeat with 39% to 38%, according to a poll conducted by Avangarde.

The poll also shows nationalist party AUR taking over Social Democrats (PSD) as the most preferred party (29% to 22%), Hotnews.ro reported. The December 1 parliamentary elections were won by the Social Democrats, followed by AUR.

In the first round of the presidential elections, Calin Georgescu would be followed by Crin Antonescu (25%) and Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan (independent, 17%), while George Simion (AUR) and Elena Lasconi (USR) would get only 6% of the votes. 

In the second round, Georgescu would defeat Nicusor Dan (43% to 32%) and Elena Lasconi (44% to 31%).

Calin Georgescu, who won the first round of the presidential elections in November 2024, where the two candidates of the ruling coalition didn’t make it to the second round, was expected to lead the poll – while the unexpected element is the strong position enjoyed by Antonescu versus both Georgescu (in the confrontation) and Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan – broadly seen as Georgescu’s main challenger.

The poll also reveals a certain but limited overlap between the electorates of the ruling coalition and that of Calin Georgescu – which is not the case for the electorates of Nicusor Dan or Elena Lasconi. Also, the weak score of AUR leader George Simion is attributable to the stronger position of Calin Georgescu among the nationalist electorate.

Regarding the intention to vote in the parliamentary elections, if they were to take place on Sunday, only 69% of respondents indicated a party, but AUR is leading with 29%, followed by PSD (22%), USR (13%), PNL(13%), SOS Romania (8%), POT (5%), UDMR (4%).

The repeated presidential elections are scheduled for May 4 (first round), and the ruling coalition formed by the Social Democrats (PSD), Liberals (PNL), and Hungarian party UDMR announced former Liberal president Crin Antonescu as joint candidate – although final evaluations are still being carried out.

iulian@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Inquam Photos/Octav Ganea, George Călin)