The macroeconomic confidence indicator compiled by CFA Romania dropped by 8 points to 41.5 in May. The decrease was triggered by falls in both components of the indicator, the current conditions and the expectations.

Thus, the current conditions component was down by 9.5 points compared to the previous month and by 27 points compared to May 2017, to 56.9. The expectations component decreased by 7.2 points compared to April and by 24.1 compared to May 2017, down to 33.8 points.

Some 90% of the CFA analysts expect RON to depreciate against the euro. They project the EUR/RON rate at 4.7046 over the next 6 months and at 4.7603 over the next 12 months.

The inflation is expected to slow to 4.58% in the following 12 months. Meanwhile, the average 3-month interbank rate (ROBOR 3M) is seen to further rise to 3.45% over the next 12 months. The yield on sovereign bonds denominated in lei with a maturity of 5 years is estimated to reach 5.03% over the period.

The CFA indicator was launched in 2011 and measures the analysts’ perception on Romania’s economy over 1-year period. It ranges between 0 (lack of trust) to 100 (complete trust).

editor@romania-insider.com