The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator calculated by CFA Romania based on a poll among its members decreased in January 2019 by 4.9 points compared to the previous month, to 23.8 points.

The indicator is down by almost half compared to the same month of last year, reaching the lowest value since July 2012.

Both components of the index, namely the ones reflecting the current conditions and the expectations, contributed to the decline, local Agerpres reported. The current conditions indicator decreased in January alone by 7.1 points to 39.3 points (compared to the same month of the previous year, it dropped by 17.9 points). The expectations indicator declined by 3.8 points in January to 16 points (minus 24.4 points versus January 2018).

As for the EUR / RON exchange rate, more than 87% of participants to the poll anticipate a depreciation of the local currency in the next 12 month. Thus, the average expectation for the six-month horizon is RON 4.8055 for EUR 1, while for the 12-month horizon the average rate of the forecast exchange rate is RON 4.8884 per EUR.

The expectations for 12-month inflation rate (February 2020 / February 2019) averaged 3.84%.

editor@romania-insider.com

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