Romanian CFA financial analysts estimate 2.3% GDP growth this year, a downward revision of the forecast from 3% in March, and 8.4% inflation over the coming 12 months, according to the monthly survey carried out by CFA Romania Society at the end of April.

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator compiled by the CFA Romania Society remained constant, at 40.9 points at the end of April. The current situation index improved to 56.5 while the expectations deteriorated to 39.1.

The (rather outdated) survey serves as a benchmark to reveal how much the inflationary expectations have changed over the past months. The National Bank of Romania (BNR) projects under the revised forecast, published in May, the consumer price inflation at 10% in March 2023 and 12.4% in June 2023.

The surprising 6.5% GDP growth in Q1 announced by the statistics office INS since the CFA survey was carried out has probably not significantly impacted analysts’ expectations for the economic growth this year as they are still waiting for the detailed sectoral data in June to show the sources of growth.

The local currency will reach an exchange rate of 5.06 RON to EUR within 12 months, the CFA Romania’s Society’s poll also shows. 

andrei@romania-insider.com

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