• The forecasts made by managers in the second half of 2024, as expressed in the CONFIDEX study, were more pessimistic than the actual economic reality of Romania.

• The onset of the year, however, marked by surprising events, international geo-political tensions, and the unpredictability of the upcoming presidential elections in Romania, may heighten the caution levels within the business environment.

• The 12th edition of CONFIDEX is now underway. Business leaders and managers in Romania are invited to complete the survey, and based on their responses, the resulting CONFIDEX index will reflect the level of confidence among business stakeholders in the national economy for the first semester of this year.

A new edition of the CONFIDEX study begins, the only longitudinal study in Romania measuring the confidence of Romanian business leaders in the economy for the past five years. Entrepreneurs and top executives in Romania are encouraged to directly contribute to the assessment of confidence in the Romanian economy by completing the CONFIDEX 12 survey by March 28. This study is supported by the private equity funds ROCA, Agista, and CITR, the leading player in the insolvency and restructuring market in Romania.

In the second half of 2024, the CONFIDEX confidence index remained stable at a value of 52, similar to that of H1 2024 (52.5), but 2025 starts with new unexpected elements on the geo-political landscape, which may influence the level of caution among managers and even affect some business decisions in Romania. Conversely, the imminent reconstruction of Ukraine, strategic investment decisions in the region, and the conclusion of presidential elections may bring a new wave of confidence and opportunities for the local business environment.   

“For five years, the CONFIDEX study has evolved from a mere indicator of confidence in the economy into a true reflection of business reality, showcasing the resilience of Romanian entrepreneurs. With the support of over 4,000 business leaders, we are collectively building a robust economy, where optimism remains an essential resource for progress. During this period, we are witnessing a potential reconfiguration of the international economic landscape, and the effects will undoubtedly be felt in the Romanian economy. In such a context, understanding how we view opportunities and how we can develop successful local models is crucial for preparing companies capable of navigating periods of uncertainty and efficiently accessing sources of growth,” states Andrei Cionca, co-founder of the private equity funds ROCA and Agista, and initiator of the CONFIDEX study.

From another perspective, at the end of 2024, the business environment exhibited a trend of concern regarding the future of the local economy and the evolution of their own companies, despite the fact that the Romanian economy had grown, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years.

Expectations vs. Reality. Where Opportunities May Arise

In the last semester of 2024, only 29% of participating managers expressed optimism regarding the prospects of the Romanian economy, down from 34% recorded in the previous semester. However, official data regarding key indicators of the Romanian economy currently available contradict most expectations.

In H2 2024, the majority of managers (56%) forecasted an increase in inflation. However, this decreased compared to 2023, reaching 5.1% versus 7% in 2023. Nevertheless, the inflation rate in Romania remains the highest compared to other European Union countries, where the average is 2.7%. Rising prices impact purchase prices or raw material costs, operational expenses, and sales volumes. Consequently, the priorities of the business environment expressed in the second half of 2024 were sales growth (49% of respondents), employee retention (27%), improving customer relations (25%), and access to financing (21%).

Additionally, although 1 in 3 managers surveyed in H2 2025 expected Romania's GDP to decline in the coming months, it reached 1.7 trillion lei in 2024, compared to a record high value of 1.6 trillion in the previous year. Over the past 10 years, Romania's GDP has nearly doubled, from 899 billion lei in 2014.

The unemployment rate recorded at the beginning of 2025 rose slightly, in line with the expectations of 49% of business leaders who anticipated this trend in H2 2024. According to INS, the unemployment rate in January 2024 was 5.7%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from December 2023. However, the increase is not significant and translates to a diversification of the labor market access for managers and entrepreneurs, as well as a potentially lower level regarding salary increases.

The CONFIDEX index reached its lowest point during the pandemic period. Subsequently, it began to gradually recover, reaching the highest level in the past three years (52.5) in the first half of last year and maintaining a similar value in H2 2024 (52).

The CONFIDEX 12th Edition Survey can be completed here: CONFIDEX Study: A Snapshot of Confidence in the Romanian Economy.

*This is a press release.