All member states fulfil the criterion on public finances, except Romania, which is the only country subject to an excessive deficit procedure, according to the Convergence Report published by the European Commission on June 1.

Romania's general government balance is seen as sinking back to -7.5% in 2022 after the improvement last year, to late improve to 6.3% of GDP in 2023, under the Spring Forecast quoted by the EC in the Convergence Report.

The commission estimates a negative 1.1pp contribution to the fiscal stance in 2023 coming from the nationally financed primary current expenditure as the energy-related subsidies are discontinued.

Romania doesn't plan to join the single currency area sooner than 2029.

The next report on Romania's euro adoption will set 2029 as the target date, said first deputy governor of the National Bank of Romania (BNR) Florin Georgescu last December, before the surge in inflation and the war in Ukraine.

The euro adoption calendar is revised typically on an annual basis and is included in the Convergence Report submitted by the Government to the European Commission.

Romania had a window of opportunity between 2015 and 2017, when it could have applied for the entry into the eurozone's preparatory mechanism ERM II (exchange rate mechanism), but the authorities decided at that time that such a step wouldn't be wise in the light of the weak "real" convergence (meaning relatively low GDP per capita expressed at purchase parity rates).

The "real" convergence has improved meanwhile, but all the other criteria that count are failed now. 

(Photo: Anyaberkut/ Dreamstime)

andrei@romania-insider.com