The Austrian banking group Erste, the owner of local bank BCR, has significantly improved its economic growth forecast for Romania, estimating an advance of 5.1% in 2022, compared to the previous forecast of 2.8%.

This is more than the Government's expectations (+2.9% this year).

It also revised downwards the growth forecast for Romania's growth next year to 4% (versus 4.4% projected by the Government), from 5.7% previously.

The bank's analysts blamed it on the "change in the model used by the INS for the seasonal adjustment" while, in fact, what changed was not the model but the parameters estimated (and used in the model) based on the rolling quarterly GDP data that deviated from the "normal" (long-term) seasonality pattern of the Romanian economy, on the occasion of the lockdown, economic decline and the rising energy prices.

The revision comes after the statistics (INS) confirmed on June 8 that Romania's economy grew by 5.2% quarter on quarter (QoQ) in the first quarter of this year.

"The quarterly growth profile is in line with the rapid estimate published on May 17 but deviates from previous GDP releases due to a change in the model used by the INS for seasonal adjustment. Therefore, our review of real GDP growth is significant. We are revising our economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 5.1% in 2022. Next year's economic growth could slow to 4.0% compared to our previous estimate of 5.7%," Erste analysts show in a report released on June 8, quoted by Economedia.ro.

The Romanian economy is expected to grow by 2.9% this year, the World Bank said in its Global Economic Prospects (GEP) on June 7.

(Photo: Natanael Alfredo Nemanita Ginting/ Dreamstime)

iulian@romania-insider.com