CFA Romania’s macroeconomic confidence indicator recorded a value of 65.6 points in November, up 0.3 points compared to the previous month. The growth was exclusively related to the anticipation of better conditions for the next year, although the perception of the current economic situation has worsened.

The indicator has a component that evaluates current economic conditions, and one that looks into the expectations about the economy.

The component that analyses the current economic conditions amounted to 77.3 points in November, down 5.6 points compared to the previous month. However, the expectations component increased by 3.2 points to 59.8 points.

CFA Romania launched its macroeconomic confidence indicator in May 2011, in an effort to quantify the analysts’ perception of Romania’s economy for one year.

The indicator ranges between 0 (the lack of trust) and 100 (total trust in the Romanian economy). It is calculated based on six questions about the current conditions in the business and labor market, and the expectations about the developments in business and labor market over the next year.

Romania’s National Bank (BNR) maintained in November the estimate on the inflation at -0.4% for the end of the year, but revised up from 2% to 2.1% the inflation estimate for the end of 2017.

As for the evolution of the exchange rate, the analysts estimate a level of RON 4.5/EUR 1 for the next six months and RON 4.51/EUR 1 for the next year.

CFA Romania is an association of investment professionals from Romania, most of them holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst title.

editor@romania-insider.com