A poll conducted by AtlasIntel shows that there is more than one combination of relatively compatible parties that might form parliamentary majorities in Romania after next year’s elections. 

The Social Democrats (PSD) would win general elections with 18.3% of the voters already having an option (11.4% of those polled were still undecided), but they need to keep the Liberals (PNL, 11%) as partners since the radical parties AUR and SOS Romania taken together might control the largest number of seats in Parliament (19.5% of the voters with an option.

The same poll, quoted by Digi24, shows the reformist party USR (15.1%) as the second-largest party, well above the Liberals – a party that was surpassed by the radical party AUR and dropped to fourth place.

The Popular Movement Party (PMP, 7%) marked an unusually high score, making it a potential partner of a centre-right coalition organised by USR (as a senior partner, this time) and the Liberals. At this moment, such a construction seems improbable, but the steep decline of the Liberals may result in the quick replacement of the decorative leadership appointed by president Klaus Iohannis with virtually no support from the regional organisations.

The outcome of the presidential elections is also important, keeping in mind the contribution of president Iohannis to the unexpected PNL-PSD construct.

The baseline scenario remains, however, the continuity of the PSD-PNL majority – with a reduced representation of the Liberals that would have to accept a Social Democrat prime minister for the whole four-year term and further erosion of its electoral basis. 

Another fact revealed by the AtlasIntel poll is the rising support gained by the radical parties AUR (13.7%) and SOS Romania (5.8%). 

iulian@romania-insider.com

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