A poll conducted by Ipsos for Euronews shows Romania’s ruling coalition winning the June 9 European elections with 42.4% of the votes and getting 16 MEP seats: 8 for the Social Democrats (PSD/S&D), 7 for the Liberals (PNL/EPP), and another one (to Liberals again, but this depends on the way the joint lists are drafted) after the distribution of the votes given to the smaller parties/candidates not meeting the threshold. 

While this falls somehow within the limits of the consensus expectations, the poll shows Romanian far-right parties at a combined score of nearly 32% – which would entitle them to 12 of the 33 MEP seats allocated to Romania. The results coincide with the 12 MEP score for far-right party AUR revealed by the latest poll conducted by Europe Elect for Euractiv – which sees George Simion’s political vehicle rather surprisingly as the strongest party in the country.

Such results obtained in the parliamentary elections would create a major political deadlock and possibly a break within the grand ruling coalition of the Social Democrats and the Liberals. However, it is still premature and risky to extrapolate the potential results of the European elections to the national parliamentary ballot scheduled for December.

The far-right party AUR (Alliance for the Union of Romanians/ECR) of George Simion would get only 20.7% of the votes and 8 MEP seats in the Ipsos poll conducted for Euronews. 

But this is not all: SOS Romania, the party split from AUR and not far from it in terms of ideology (only a bit more vocal), would get 5.9% of the votes and 2 MEP seats. Furthermore, the party of former prime minister Victor Ponta (Pro Romania), who surprisingly announced plans for an alliance with George Simion’s AUR, may get 5.1% of the votes and 2 MEP seats. 

Although they have not expressed preferences for European political groups, SOS Romania and Pro Romania would consolidate a 12 MEP block around AUR, consolidating George Simion’s position in the European political landscape.

The other poll conducted by Europe Elect for Euractiv in mid-March showed Romanian far-right AUR as the strongest Romanian party in the European elections, with 12 MEP seats without the support of SOS and Pro Romania (seen as not meeting the electoral threshold).

AUR’s position has surprisingly strengthened from only 8 MEP seats in Europe Elect’s poll carried out in late February. The gain coincides with all the other significant Romanian parties losing ground. Not only SOS Romania and Pro Romania but also the ethnic Hungarian party UDMR are rated by Europe Elect with no MEP seat in the mod-March poll.

As regards the centre-right Right-Wing United Alliance, including the USR (RE) party and its two smaller partners, is seen by the Ipsos poll at a 14.2% score that would result in 5 MEP seats. Europe Elect measures only USR and assigns it 5 MEP seats in mid-March.

iulian@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Alberto Mihai/Dreamstime.com)