A recent electoral survey conducted by Sociopol for Romania TV reveals that nationalist and far-right candidates are poised to dominate Romania’s presidential election this May. The poll suggests that radical candidates, including leading figure Călin Georgescu, will advance to the second round regardless of whether Georgescu is permitted to run.

The results spotlight Georgescu, a political outsider with little prior electoral support, whose rise has been fuelled by traditional media coverage rather than social media platforms like TikTok. Georgescu has gained notoriety for controversial and unrealistic claims, such as proposing a canal linking the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea and asserting Romania’s economy would attract unemployed Germans once its diaspora returned.

Victor Ponta, a former Social Democratic (PSD) prime minister and adviser to current PM Marcel Ciolacu, emerges as another prominent contender. Ponta has drawn attention for his far-right rhetoric, including visits to Mar-a-Lago and statements questioning his PSD alignment.

The poll was conducted for Romania TV, a network allegedly controlled by Sebastian Ghiță, a fugitive businessman facing corruption charges and a known associate of Ponta.

Key findings from the poll:

# Călin Georgescu’s influence: Should Georgescu run, he is projected to secure 50% of the vote, overshadowing all other candidates. Without him, his support would largely shift to George Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), and Victor Ponta.

# Far-right alignment: The survey confirms the far-right appeal of Ponta, whose support overlaps significantly with Georgescu’s base.

# Moderate opposition: Opposition candidates, such as Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan and Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union, share an equal split of moderate votes. However, their combined appeal falls short of matching the far-right bloc.

# Limited shift to moderates: Only 8% of Georgescu’s voters are likely to favour moderates like Dan, Lasconi, or Crin Antonescu.

Poll results with and without Călin Georgescu:

Candidate                 With Georgescu  Without Georgescu

Călin Georgescu                   50%                         –

George Simion                       6%                        35%

Victor Ponta                         15%                        26%

Nicușor Dan                          10%                        13%

Elena Lasconi                        10%                        13%

Crin Antonescu                       8%                        10%

The findings reflect growing support for nationalist rhetoric in Romania, a trend that could significantly influence the country’s political landscape.

iulian@romania-insider.com

(Photo source: Inquam Photos/George Calin)