Romania’s retail sales index increased by 1.1% y/y in February, but this was the weakest growth rate since December 2023, while the seasonally-adjusted index (-0.9% m/m) was the lowest in six months, according to the statistics office INS.
Romania’s February retail figures confirm broad expectations for a weaker advance of private consumption this year, dragged down by a slower advance of income across the entire economy (private and budgetary sectors) and growing concerns about future wealth. This trend will perhaps accelerate in Q2 with rising concerns about the impact of the new US trade policies and may further strengthen in H2 with the new fiscal consolidation package (particularly if it includes a VAT rate hike).
Romania’s retail sales have shown no growth trend over the past four months: the annual growth rate has plunged from 11.1% y/y in October to 1.1% y/y in February, while the seasonally and workday adjusted index has stayed within a narrow band – indeed, some 17%-18% above the average level seen in 2021.
The non-food retail sales, showing a buoyant increase during most of 2024 as well as in the previous years as an expression of households’ confidence in their rising incomes, have stagnated for three months (in seasonally adjusted terms) below the peak reached last November. In annual terms, the non-food sales still posted +4.4% y/y growth.
The food sales, seasonally and workday adjusted, have decreased for the fourth consecutive month in February, while the unadjusted food sales index posted -4.1% y/y growth.
The retail car fuel sales, adjusted or unadjusted, dropped in February (-0.6% m/m in adjusted terms) but maintained an annual 3.3% y/y increase that does not reflect a steady upward trend.
Retail car fuel sales have returned to the levels seen in the first half of 2024 after a plunge in July 2024.
iulian@romania-insider.com
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