According to the latest monthly poll published in September, the macroeconomic confidence index compiled by the Romanian CFA Society has decreased for the second month in a row, driven by the sub-index of expectations (the other sub-index reflecting current conditions).

The index edged down by 0.9pp MoM to 73.6 points (+40.3 points YoY) on a 0-100 scale with 50 points reflecting balanced sentiment.

Nevertheless, the index remains close to the all-time high and the analysts' expectations regarding this year's economic growth. Thus the analysts expect a 7.2% GDP increase this year (versus 6.8% in August).

The forecast for the year's public deficit deteriorated slightly to 6.9% of GDP (6.8% in August), but this is still below the Government's 7.1% of GDP target. Public debt is seen at 53% of GDP within 12 months.

"Against a background of caution generated by the fourth wave of the coronavirus pandemic, the macroeconomic confidence indicator dropped for the second consecutive month but remained at a high level, close to the historical maximum, which indicates confidence in future economic developments," CFA Romania vice president Adrian Codirlasu said, according to 1asig.ro.

In the context of rising inflation (4.38% rise in consumer prices over the next 12 months), the analysts anticipate an increase in money market interest rates over the one-year forecast period, including at least two refinancing rate hikes operated by the National Bank of Romania (BNR).

iulian@romania-insider.com

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