The latest poll conducted by CFA Romania Society among its members in January revealed a sharp decline of the macroeconomic confidence index from 57.6 points in December to 50.7 points in January. Compared to January 2021, the index dropped by 5 points.

Both components of the index, which track the current conditions and the expectations, have decreased compared to December and January 2021 as well.

The current conditions sub-index was 50 points in January, while the expectations were marginally more optimistic: 51.1 points.

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon continued to rise, reaching an average of 6.32%.

Regarding the RON to EUR exchange rate, approximately 98% of the participants anticipate a local currency depreciation in the next 12 months (compared to the current value), with no appreciation opinion recorded. Thus, the average value of the anticipations for the 6-month horizon is RON 5.0159 to EUR, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is RON 5.0761 to EUR.

The poll revealed expectations for 4.3% GDP growth this year (from 5.6% in 2021) and a public deficit of 5.7% of GDP (from 6.7% in 2021).

iulian@romania-insider.com

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