The macroeconomic confidence index compiled by CFA Romania Society based on a survey among its members dropped by 5.5 points to 52.1 points (on a 0-100 scale with 100 indicating perfect conditions and best expectations) – just above the 50-point benchmark indicating balanced conditions/expectations.

The index is calculated based on data collected at the end of January.

The current situation is rated at 62 points, while the anticipations are at 47.2 points – both down from 64.3 points and 52.7 points in December (the index released at the end of January).

Just as in the case of the 9-point advance marked in December, the causes behind the sudden deterioration in analysts’ sentiment remain unclear. 

As no significant regulatory (fiscal or otherwise) innovation was operated in January, the figures released in the first month of the year, and the projections voiced by the CFA analysts themselves marginally improved, the Blue Monday remains a relevant candidate for the change in analysts’ mood. 

The developments in Ukraine may have also deteriorated analysts’ expectations – where the steepest deterioration was seen in January.

In contrast to the confidence index’s dynamics, the Romanian CFA analysts revised upward tier expectations for economic growth this year from 2.6% (projected in December) to 2.9% and revised downwards their expectations for this year's budget deficit from 5.6% of GDP (December) to 5.1% of GDP (January). 

iulian@romania-insider.com

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